Key Points Improving chemical pricing being undermined by Middle East outages and logistics constraints, limiting volume realization for the MENA group Expectations appear too high, with likely misses near term and estimate...
Key Points Destocking largely complete with demand normalizing and lean inventories driving a restocking-led upturn Supply curtailments, China cost pressure, and policy tailwinds are reinforcing pricing power and margin recovery TROX is our...
Key Points Disruptions lifting ethylene/PE, methanol, and fertilizer prices should also benefit downstream chains like chlorovinyls and acetyls Higher oil prices and a wider U.S. feedstock advantage suggest estimates for several commodity...
Key Points U.S. natural gas and NGL oversupply will persist, limiting ethane price upside Normalization of frac spread would erode ethylene margins by 3.4c/lb., at most We rate our U.S. ethane-exposed names DOW...
Key Points Global polyethylene capacity growth continues into 2026 (~4% Y-o-Y) but remains manageable; higher oil prices could provide a pricing tailwind Consensus earnings estimates for polyethylene producers appear undemanding, based on...
Key Points Supply wave fading. Ethylene capacity growth into 2030 below historical norms as the build cycle rolls off Capacity closures, project cancellations, and China feedstock exposure could remove up to 30+...
Key Points We expect Q4’25 EPS to come in ~28% below consensus on average 2026 estimates moving lower as recovery pushed out For 2026, Overweight-rated SABIC is our top pick, as we believe...
Key Points 2025 earnings pressure stemmed mainly from LNG divestiture impacts and cancelled projects, while the core industrial gas business (ex-helium) remained solid New management cutting underperforming projects, reducing capex, and rightsizing...