Key Points Supply tightening fast: >700kt of closures since 2023 and deep Chinese losses point to accelerating global TiO₂ rationalization heading into 2026 Demand and margins bottoming: Destocking has largely cleared, volumes...
Key Points Periods of extreme MDI demand weakness, similar to the last three years, typically followed by strong demand rebounds MDI cycle could normalize as early as 2026/2027 with significant earnings and...
Key Points U.S. natural gas and NGL oversupply should persist limiting ethane price upside despite higher ethane exports Normalization of frac spread would erode ethylene margins by 2.5c/lb., at most We rate our...
Key Points Forecasting Q3'25 q-o-q margin compression for the MENA group; we anticipate mostly earnings misses in the quarter Overall, we believe consensus is inaccurately forecasting Q3’25; we are meaningfully below Q3’25...
Key Points Improved capital allocation coupled with focus on core business should result in management stated medium-term targets being achievable Free cash flow generation should rev up FY2026 and beyond while debt...
Key Points History suggests that demand- and profitability-plagued periods, like 2022-2025, were followed by rapid margin and volume gains. Recent capacity closure announcements could tighten the market meaningfully. Several countries imposing anti-dumping...
Key Points Announced/speculated capacity rationalization in China and South Korea and cancellation of “at risk” projects key to inducing cycle tightness If all announced and speculated capacity shutdowns were to happen and...
Key Points The recently announced MP Materials deal with the U.S. DoD has rightly resulted in a re-rating of the entire Western rare earths complex Supply growth in rare earths lagging behind...