Key Points Destocking largely complete with demand normalizing and lean inventories driving a restocking-led upturn Supply curtailments, China cost pressure, and policy tailwinds are reinforcing pricing power and margin recovery TROX is our...
Key Points Q4’25 earnings miss on pricing weakness despite strong TiO2 and zircon volumes Q1’26 guidance below consensus on reduced operating rates (and higher fixed cost absorption). Pricing and volume outlook favorable We...
Key Points EFA and EXIM signaled up to USD600m in coordinated, non-binding support, validating Tronox’s role in a Western-aligned REE supply chain Financing hinges on a customer-anchored project structure; cracking & leaching...
Key Points Supply tightening fast: >700kt of closures since 2023 and deep Chinese losses point to accelerating global TiO₂ rationalization heading into 2026 Demand and margins bottoming: Destocking has largely cleared, volumes...
Key Points Q3'25 EBITDA and EPS miss on weak demand and Venator inventory liquidation related (temporary) heightened competitive dynamics Supply rationalization, global antidumping duties, and Venator’s exit seen tightening markets; Tronox targeting...
Key Points History suggests that demand- and profitability-plagued periods, like 2022-2025, were followed by rapid margin and volume gains. Recent capacity closure announcements could tighten the market meaningfully. Several countries imposing anti-dumping...
Key Points Conservative normal valuation analysis pegs fair value at USD12 per share NOL’s and rare earth exposure could propel valuation above calculated normal levels We rate TROX shares Overweight with a USD5...